SEC Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Georgia to win the SEC in 2026, at 34% to take the league.
Projected playoff teams: Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
Kentucky is close behind at 39% to reach the title game.
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10-2 | 7-2 | 68% | 34%down 34 points since the preseason | 56% | |
| 2 | 9-3 | 7-2 | 39% | 11%up 11 points since the preseason | 69% | |
| 3 | 9-3 | 6-3 | 48% | 32%up 30 points since the preseason | 44% | |
| 4 | 9-3 | 6-3 | 20% | 12%up 6 points since the preseason | 34% | |
| 5 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 9% | 4%down 9 points since the preseason | 51% | |
| 6 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 7% | 2% | 9% | |
| 7 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 6% | 2%up 2 points since the preseason | 21% | |
| 8 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 2% | 1% | 4% | |
| 9 | 7-5 | 5-4 | 1% | <1% | 4% | |
| 10 | 7-5 | 4-5 | 1% | <1% | 2% | |
| 11 | 7-5 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| 12 | 7-5 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | |
| 13 | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| 14 | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0% | 0%down 7 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 15 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 4-8 | 1-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.