Georgia Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Georgia to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 9.7 expected wins. Down 0.9 wins from the preseason projection. Georgia makes the 12-team Playoff in 56% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Georgia a 34% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Georgia games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Georgia as the 9 seed, going out in the first round to 8-seed Wake Forest (46% for Georgia in that game). Georgia earns a first-round bye in 18% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Georgia. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Tennessee StateWon63-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won70-20
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
at ArkansasWon45-17 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs OklahomaWon41-13 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs VanderbiltWon38-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at AlabamaWon20-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs AuburnLost24-27 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
66% chance Georgia wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Ole Miss68% chance Georgia wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Missouri82% chance Georgia wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2164% chance Georgia wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Georgia Tech92% chance Georgia wins
How many games Georgia wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 10-2 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 10.6 in the preseason to 9.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.