Army Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Army to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 7.7 expected wins. Up 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. Army makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Army a 9% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Army games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Army earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Army. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs BryantWon59-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost24-28
- Week 4Fri Sep 25
at TempleWon21-17 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost29-31
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs TulaneWon20-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won56-24
- Week 8Fri Oct 23
at TulsaWon38-35 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Memphis35% chance Army wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Air Force62% chance Army wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2163% chance Army wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Rice62% chance Army wins - Week 15Sat Dec 12
50% chance Army wins
How many games Army wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.1 in the preseason to 7.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.