Tulsa Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Tulsa to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.8 expected wins. Up 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Tulsa makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Tulsa a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Tulsa games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Tulsa earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Tulsa. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won24-10
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Sam HoustonWon23-17 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs East Texas A&MWon42-0 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at ArkansasLost6-34 - Week 5Thu Oct 1
vs North TexasLost44-45 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at NavyLost26-34 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at RiceWon38-17 - Week 8Fri Oct 23
vs ArmyLost35-38 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Tulane57% chance Tulsa wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1482% chance Tulsa wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Charlotte96% chance Tulsa wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at UTSA42% chance Tulsa wins
How many games Tulsa wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (45% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.5 in the preseason to 6.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.