How many games will Rice win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Rice is 4.1 wins.

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American Athletic · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Rice Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Rice's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Rice to finish 4-8 in 2026, about 4.1 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Rice to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 4.1 expected wins. That’s up 1.4 wins from our preseason number.

4-8

projected record

4.1 ▲1.4 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Rice to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 4.1 expected wins. The model gives Rice a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Houston Christian	93%
Wk 2	@ Notre Dame	5%
Wk 3	vs Western Michigan	46%
Wk 4	@ Fresno State	25%
Wk 5	vs UTSA	15%
Wk 6	@ East Carolina	38%
Wk 7	vs Tulsa	27%
Wk 8	@ Florida Atlantic	31%
Wk 10	@ North Texas	44%
Wk 11	vs Tulane	54%
Wk 12	@ Temple	18%
Wk 13	vs Army	10%

Win-total distribution

1 wins

2 wins

11%

3 wins

22%

4 wins

27%

5 wins

21%

6 wins

11%

7 wins

8 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Rice has a 0% shot at the American Athletic title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Rice’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: American Athletic projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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