Rice Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Rice to finish 2-10 in 2026, with 2.3 expected wins. Down 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Rice makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Rice a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 7 of 7 Rice games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Rice earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Rice. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Houston ChristianWon31-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Notre DameLost0-52 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost21-28
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Fresno StateLost24-38 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs UTSALost14-16 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Lost12-28
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs TulsaLost17-38 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost49-51
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at North Texas10% chance Rice wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Tulane45% chance Rice wins - Week 12Thu Nov 19
at Temple39% chance Rice wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Army38% chance Rice wins
How many games Rice wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 2-10 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 2.7 in the preseason to 2.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.