Florida Atlantic Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Florida Atlantic to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.5 expected wins. Florida Atlantic makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Florida Atlantic a <1% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Florida Atlantic games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Florida Atlantic earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Florida Atlantic. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at FloridaLost21-66 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs NavyWon38-30 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won16-10
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at UL MonroeWon45-17 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Texas SouthernWon66-10 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at ArmyLost24-56 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs RiceWon51-49 - Week 9Thu Oct 29
at North Texas10% chance Florida Atlantic wins - Week 10Thu Nov 5
vs UTSA40% chance Florida Atlantic wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Tulsa18% chance Florida Atlantic wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2140% chance Florida Atlantic wins
- Week 13Fri Nov 2740% chance Florida Atlantic wins
How many games Florida Atlantic wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.5 in the preseason to 6.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.