Western Michigan Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Western Michigan to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.3 expected wins. Up 0.5 wins from the preseason projection. Western Michigan makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Western Michigan a 18% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 7 of 7 Western Michigan games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Western Michigan earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Western Michigan. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at MichiganLost12-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs MonmouthWon49-14 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at RiceWon28-21 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Boise StateLost7-32 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at BuffaloWon20-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Kent StateWon38-7 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won21-14
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
at ToledoLost38-45 - Week 9Sat Oct 3193% chance Western Michigan wins
- Week 11Tue Nov 10
at Akron83% chance Western Michigan wins - Week 12Tue Nov 1793% chance Western Michigan wins
- Week 13Tue Nov 24
vs Miami (OH)62% chance Western Michigan wins
How many games Western Michigan wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (44% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.8 in the preseason to 8.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.