Buffalo Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Buffalo to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.9 expected wins. Up 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Buffalo makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Buffalo a 1% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Buffalo games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Buffalo earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Buffalo. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
vs UAlbanyWon21-17 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost20-33
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Penn StateLost13-55 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Robert MorrisWon31-28 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost17-20
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
at ToledoWon23-8 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won25-18
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Won31-24
- Week 10Tue Nov 3
at Miami (OH)20% chance Buffalo wins - Week 11Wed Nov 11
at Ball State44% chance Buffalo wins - Week 12Wed Nov 1859% chance Buffalo wins
- Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Akron63% chance Buffalo wins
How many games Buffalo wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.5 in the preseason to 6.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.