Mid-American Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Toledo to win the Mid-American in 2026, at 40% to take the league.
No projected playoff team from this conference yet.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9-3 | 7-1 | 75% | 37%up 26 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 2 | 9-3 | 6-2 | 65% | 40%up 22 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 3 | 8-4 | 6-2 | 42% | 18%down 12 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 4 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 15% | 5%down 33 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 5 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 6 | 5-7 | 4-4 | <1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 5-7 | 4-4 | <1% | <1% | 0% | |
| 8 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.