Bowling Green Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Bowling Green to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 3.2 expected wins. Down 2.2 wins from the preseason projection. Bowling Green makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Bowling Green a 0% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Bowling Green games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Bowling Green earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Bowling Green. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Tarleton StateLost13-20 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at NebraskaLost7-56 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Iowa StateLost7-55 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost6-14
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Miami (OH)Won24-20 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won38-10
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Ball StateLost31-32 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at BuffaloLost24-31 - Week 9Sat Oct 317% chance Bowling Green wins
- Week 11Tue Nov 10
vs Kent State64% chance Bowling Green wins - Week 12Fri Nov 20
at Toledo7% chance Bowling Green wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2845% chance Bowling Green wins
How many games Bowling Green wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (47% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.4 in the preseason to 3.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.