Toledo Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Toledo to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.0 expected wins.
Our statistical model projects Toledo to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.0 expected wins. The model gives Toledo a 32% chance to win the Mid-American outright.
Model called 1 of 1 of Toledo’s games right so far this season.
Game-by-game
Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.
| Week | Opponent | Result / win prob |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ Michigan State | Lost 20–30 ✓ |
| Wk 2 | vs Central Connecticut | 93% |
| Wk 3 | vs Temple | 35% |
| Wk 4 | vs San Diego State | 25% |
| Wk 5 | @ Ball State | 97% |
| Wk 6 | vs Buffalo | 80% |
| Wk 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | 63% |
| Wk 8 | vs Western Michigan | 34% |
| Wk 10 | @ Sacramento State | 83% |
| Wk 11 | vs Massachusetts | 94% |
| Wk 12 | vs Bowling Green | 87% |
| Wk 13 | @ Ohio | 84% |
Win-total distribution
What subscribers get
Everything above is the free model. Toledo has a 60% shot at the Mid-American title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.
New members’ first week is 99¢ — and the first losing week’s on us. 2026 picks verified on Juice Reel.
Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
© 2026 Backdoor Cover LLC