Toledo Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Toledo to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. Up 1.1 wins from the preseason projection. Toledo makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Toledo a 40% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Toledo games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Toledo earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Toledo. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4Lost20-30
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Central ConnecticutWon63-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs TempleWon49-48 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won41-16
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Ball StateWon39-24 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs BuffaloLost8-23 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won34-14
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Won45-38
- Week 10Wed Nov 489% chance Toledo wins
- Week 11Wed Nov 1187% chance Toledo wins
- Week 12Fri Nov 2093% chance Toledo wins
- Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Ohio52% chance Toledo wins
How many games Toledo wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (47% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.1 in the preseason to 9.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.