Western Kentucky Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Western Kentucky to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 4.5 expected wins. Down 2.3 wins from the preseason projection. Western Kentucky makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Western Kentucky a <1% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Western Kentucky games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Western Kentucky earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Western Kentucky. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at NevadaLost14-49 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at GeorgiaLost20-70 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at IndianaLost0-38 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs MercyhurstWon52-7 - Week 5Thu Oct 1Lost13-34
- Week 6Thu Oct 8Won34-13
- Week 7Wed Oct 14
at Sam HoustonWon16-3 - Week 9Tue Oct 27
vs DelawareLost21-35 - Week 10Sat Nov 751% chance Western Kentucky wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1438% chance Western Kentucky wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Liberty9% chance Western Kentucky wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2847% chance Western Kentucky wins
How many games Western Kentucky wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.8 in the preseason to 4.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.