Northern Illinois Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Northern Illinois to finish 1-11 in 2026, with 1.0 expected wins. Down 3.1 wins from the preseason projection. Northern Illinois makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Northern Illinois a 0% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Northern Illinois games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Northern Illinois earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Northern Illinois. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at IowaLost0-40 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Illinois StateLost24-28 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at ArizonaLost17-42 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost14-35
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Air ForceLost7-28 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at WyomingLost23-41 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Hawai'iLost21-56 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at UNLV14% chance Northern Illinois wins - Week 10Sat Nov 725% chance Northern Illinois wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Nevada14% chance Northern Illinois wins - Week 12Sat Nov 218% chance Northern Illinois wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs UTEP40% chance Northern Illinois wins
How many games Northern Illinois wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 1-11 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.1 in the preseason to 1.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.