Jacksonville State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Jacksonville State to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.7 expected wins. Up 0.7 wins from the preseason projection. Jacksonville State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Jacksonville State a 27% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Jacksonville State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Jacksonville State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Jacksonville State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Lost7-33
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Eastern KentuckyWon49-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at OhioLost27-29 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won31-27
- Week 4Sat Sep 26Won23-13
- Week 6Wed Oct 7Won27-26
- Week 7Tue Oct 13Won27-24
- Week 9Wed Oct 2859% chance Jacksonville State wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Sam Houston89% chance Jacksonville State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1462% chance Jacksonville State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 2192% chance Jacksonville State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Delaware68% chance Jacksonville State wins
How many games Jacksonville State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.0 in the preseason to 8.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.