How many games will North Dakota State win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for North Dakota State is 9.2 wins.

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Mountain West · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

North Dakota State Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is North Dakota State's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects North Dakota State to finish 9-3 in 2026, about 9.2 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects North Dakota State to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. That’s up 0.8 wins from our preseason number.

2-0

record so far

9-3

projected record

9.2 ▲0.8 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects North Dakota State to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. The model gives North Dakota State a 13% chance to win the Mountain West outright.

Model called 2 of 2 of North Dakota State’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Jacksonville State	Won 33–7 ✓
Wk 1	vs Fordham	Won 33–7 ✓
Wk 2	@ Air Force	20%
Wk 3	@ Sacramento State	89%
Wk 5	vs Wyoming	99%
Wk 6	@ UNLV	12%
Wk 7	vs Nevada	95%
Wk 8	@ New Mexico	27%
Wk 9	vs UTEP	98%
Wk 11	@ Hawai'i	93%
Wk 12	vs Northern Illinois	99%
Wk 13	@ San José State	92%

Win-total distribution

7 wins

8 wins

18%

9 wins

45%

10 wins

27%

11 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. North Dakota State has a 30% shot at the Mountain West title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

North Dakota State’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: Mountain West projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.