North Dakota State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects North Dakota State to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.3 expected wins. Up 0.9 wins from the preseason projection. North Dakota State makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives North Dakota State a 20% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 6 of 8 North Dakota State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
North Dakota State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for North Dakota State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Won33-7
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs FordhamWon38-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Air ForceWon38-32 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won31-10
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs WyomingWon28-0 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at UNLVLost7-13 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs NevadaWon31-17 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at New MexicoLost16-21 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs UTEP92% chance North Dakota State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Hawai'i65% chance North Dakota State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2192% chance North Dakota State wins
- Week 13Fri Nov 2784% chance North Dakota State wins
How many games North Dakota State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 10-2 (46% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.4 in the preseason to 9.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.