Sam Houston Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Sam Houston to finish 2-10 in 2026, with 2.2 expected wins. Down 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Sam Houston makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Sam Houston a 0% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Sam Houston games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Sam Houston earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Sam Houston. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at TroyLost21-24 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs TulsaLost17-23 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs NichollsWon59-0 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Texas TechLost14-49 - Week 6Thu Oct 8
at LibertyLost3-35 - Week 7Wed Oct 14Lost3-16
- Week 8Wed Oct 21Lost24-30
- Week 9Tue Oct 27Lost3-24
- Week 10Sat Nov 711% chance Sam Houston wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1434% chance Sam Houston wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 2148% chance Sam Houston wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 2826% chance Sam Houston wins
How many games Sam Houston wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 2-10 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 2.5 in the preseason to 2.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.