Middle Tennessee Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Middle Tennessee to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. Up 2.8 wins from the preseason projection. Middle Tennessee makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Middle Tennessee a <1% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Middle Tennessee games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Middle Tennessee earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Middle Tennessee. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Murray StateWon38-14 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at MarshallLost26-28 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs NevadaWon27-20 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost13-23
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at KansasLost0-55 - Week 7Tue Oct 13
vs DelawareWon33-30 - Week 8Tue Oct 20Won26-23
- Week 9Wed Oct 2836% chance Middle Tennessee wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 749% chance Middle Tennessee wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Liberty8% chance Middle Tennessee wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Sam Houston52% chance Middle Tennessee wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2835% chance Middle Tennessee wins
How many games Middle Tennessee wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.0 in the preseason to 5.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.