Ohio Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Ohio to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.8 expected wins. Up 0.7 wins from the preseason projection. Ohio makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Ohio a 37% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Ohio games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Ohio earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Ohio. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at NebraskaLost21-49 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won29-27
- Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost36-41
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs StonehillWon35-7 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Kent StateWon13-10 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won31-14
- Week 7Sat Oct 17Won48-7
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Won24-20
- Week 10Tue Nov 3
at Akron88% chance Ohio wins - Week 11Tue Nov 10
at Miami (OH)59% chance Ohio wins - Week 12Tue Nov 17
vs Ball State87% chance Ohio wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs Toledo48% chance Ohio wins
How many games Ohio wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (45% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.1 in the preseason to 8.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.