Liberty Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Liberty to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.3 expected wins. Up 1.9 wins from the preseason projection. Liberty makes the 12-team Playoff in 5% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Liberty a 67% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Liberty games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Liberty earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Liberty. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Lost13-20
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Gardner-WebbWon24-23 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Ball StateWon51-15 - Week 4Thu Sep 24Won34-17
- Week 5Fri Oct 2
at DelawareWon30-14 - Week 6Thu Oct 8
vs Sam HoustonWon35-3 - Week 8Thu Oct 22Won34-6
- Week 9Sat Oct 3182% chance Liberty wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 769% chance Liberty wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1492% chance Liberty wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 2191% chance Liberty wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 2893% chance Liberty wins
How many games Liberty wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (44% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.4 in the preseason to 10.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.