How many games will Liberty win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Liberty is 7.4 wins.

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Conference USA · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Liberty Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Liberty's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Liberty to finish 7-5 in 2026, about 7.4 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Liberty to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.4 expected wins. That’s down 1.0 wins from our preseason number.

0-1

record so far

7-5

projected record

7.4 ▼1.0 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Liberty to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.4 expected wins. The model gives Liberty a 2% chance to win the Conference USA outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of Liberty’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	@ James Madison	Lost 13–20 ✓
Wk 2	vs Gardner-Webb	93%
Wk 3	vs Ball State	94%
Wk 4	@ Coastal Carolina	58%
Wk 5	@ Delaware	12%
Wk 6	vs Sam Houston	93%
Wk 8	@ Kennesaw State	13%
Wk 9	vs Florida International	85%
Wk 10	@ New Mexico State	39%
Wk 11	vs Middle Tennessee	72%
Wk 12	vs Western Kentucky	84%
Wk 13	@ Missouri State	95%

Win-total distribution

4 wins

5 wins

6 wins

15%

7 wins

30%

8 wins

31%

9 wins

15%

10 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Liberty has a 7% shot at the Conference USA title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Liberty’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: Conference USA projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.