Sacramento State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Sacramento State to finish 2-10 in 2026, with 2.4 expected wins. Down 1.6 wins from the preseason projection. Sacramento State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Sacramento State a 0% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 6 of 8 Sacramento State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Sacramento State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Sacramento State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Lost17-28
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Mississippi Valley StateWon52-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Fresno StateLost3-49 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost10-31
- Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost6-35
- Week 6Sat Oct 10Lost10-38
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs OhioLost7-48 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at Ball StateLost17-34 - Week 9Fri Oct 30
vs Kent State65% chance Sacramento State wins - Week 10Wed Nov 4
vs Toledo11% chance Sacramento State wins - Week 11Wed Nov 1133% chance Sacramento State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Hawai'i30% chance Sacramento State wins
How many games Sacramento State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 2-10 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.0 in the preseason to 2.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.