Nevada Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Nevada to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.5 expected wins. Nevada makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Nevada a 1% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Nevada games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Nevada earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Nevada. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won49-14
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Montana StateLost7-20 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost20-27
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Air ForceLost33-36 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at UTEPWon30-13 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost17-31
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Won28-13
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
at UCLA8% chance Nevada wins - Week 10Fri Nov 6
vs New Mexico24% chance Nevada wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1486% chance Nevada wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Hawai'i81% chance Nevada wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at UNLV51% chance Nevada wins
How many games Nevada wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.5 in the preseason to 5.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.