Nevada Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Nevada to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.8 expected wins. That’s up 1.3 wins from our preseason number.
Our statistical model projects Nevada to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.8 expected wins. The model gives Nevada a 0% chance to win the Mountain West outright.
Model called 1 of 1 of Nevada’s games right so far this season.
Game-by-game
Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.
| Week | Opponent | Result / win prob |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs Western Kentucky | Won 49–14 ✓ |
| Wk 2 | vs Montana State | 93% |
| Wk 3 | @ Middle Tennessee | 84% |
| Wk 4 | vs Air Force | 24% |
| Wk 6 | @ UTEP | 93% |
| Wk 7 | @ North Dakota State | 5% |
| Wk 8 | vs San José State | 87% |
| Wk 9 | @ UCLA | 15% |
| Wk 10 | vs New Mexico | 11% |
| Wk 11 | @ Northern Illinois | 76% |
| Wk 12 | vs Hawai'i | 80% |
| Wk 13 | @ UNLV | 23% |
Win-total distribution
What subscribers get
Everything above is the free model. Nevada has a 1% shot at the Mountain West title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.
New members’ first week is 99¢ — and the first losing week’s on us. 2026 picks verified on Juice Reel.
Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
© 2026 Backdoor Cover LLC