New Mexico Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects New Mexico to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.2 expected wins. Up 2.0 wins from the preseason projection. New Mexico makes the 12-team Playoff in 11% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives New Mexico a 68% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 New Mexico games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
New Mexico earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for New Mexico. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won38-7
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs MercyhurstWon70-7 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at OklahomaLost6-14 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won42-18
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs UTEPWon61-7 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at Hawai'iWon21-10 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won21-16
- Week 9Sat Oct 3194% chance New Mexico wins
- Week 10Fri Nov 6
at Nevada76% chance New Mexico wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs UNLV90% chance New Mexico wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Wyoming82% chance New Mexico wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Air Force77% chance New Mexico wins
How many games New Mexico wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.2 in the preseason to 10.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.