UTEP Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UTEP to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 2.6 expected wins. Down 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. UTEP makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives UTEP a 0% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 UTEP games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
UTEP earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for UTEP. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
at OklahomaLost0-51 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Texas SouthernWon51-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at MichiganLost17-52 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Oregon StateLost7-33 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at New MexicoLost7-61 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs NevadaLost13-30 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost11-24
- Week 9Sat Oct 318% chance UTEP wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Hawai'i40% chance UTEP wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Wyoming39% chance UTEP wins - Week 12Fri Nov 20
at Air Force10% chance UTEP wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2860% chance UTEP wins
How many games UTEP wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 2-10 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.2 in the preseason to 2.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.