San José State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects San José State to finish 6-7 in 2026, with 6.2 expected wins. Up 2.0 wins from the preseason projection. San José State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives San José State a 2% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 1 of 3 San José State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
San José State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for San José State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1
at USCLost27-21 - Week 1Fri Sep 4Won27-21
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Cal PolyWon30-20 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Fresno StateLost10-26 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Hawai'i54% chance San José State wins - Week 6Fri Oct 9
vs Wyoming59% chance San José State wins - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at UTEP63% chance San José State wins - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at Nevada40% chance San José State wins - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs New Mexico15% chance San José State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 774% chance San José State wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Air Force30% chance San José State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs UNLV51% chance San José State wins - Week 13Fri Nov 2737% chance San José State wins
How many games San José State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-7 (27% of simulations). Regular season, 13 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.2 in the preseason to 6.2 now.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.