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Week 4 · 2026 season

The biggest games of the week, predicted.

Free, every week, no account. The matchups everyone is watching and betting, with our number set against the market's. The remaining 43 predictions open with your email.

Updated 2026-09-23 · 58 games on the board this week

Marquee games

Big Ten vs Big Ten Gap 8.4
Illinois at Ohio State
Ohio State -18.12
model
Ohio State -26.5
market
8.4
gap
Read the breakdown
Big Ten vs Big Ten Gap 7.7
Wisconsin at Penn State
Penn State -17.72
model
Penn State -10
market
7.7
gap
Read the breakdown
Big Ten vs Big Ten Gap 5.8
Iowa at Michigan
Iowa -0.26
model
Michigan -5.5
market
5.8
gap
Read the breakdown
SEC vs SEC Gap 4
Oklahoma at Georgia
Georgia -9.47
model
Georgia -13.5
market
4
gap
Read the breakdown

Full slate

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Gap vs market Matchup — every one links to its breakdown Our model Market Model side
8.4
Illinois at Ohio State
Big Ten vs Big Ten
Ohio State -18.12 Ohio State -26.5 Illinois +26.5
7.7
Wisconsin at Penn State
Big Ten vs Big Ten
Penn State -17.72 Penn State -10 Penn State -10
5.8
Iowa at Michigan
Big Ten vs Big Ten
Iowa -0.26 Michigan -5.5 Iowa +5.5
4
Oklahoma at Georgia
SEC vs SEC
Georgia -9.47 Georgia -13.5 Oklahoma +13.5
3.9
Notre Dame at Purdue
Independent vs Big Ten
Notre Dame -23.59 Notre Dame -27.5 Purdue +27.5
3.5
Texas at Tennessee
SEC vs SEC
Texas -0.96 Texas -4.5 Tennessee +4.5
2.3
Northwestern at Indiana
Big Ten vs Big Ten
Indiana -18.22 Indiana -20.5 Northwestern +20.5
2.3
Oregon at USC
Big Ten vs Big Ten
Oregon -0.74 Oregon -3 USC +3
2.1
Minnesota at Washington
Big Ten vs Big Ten
Washington -12.11 Washington -10 Washington -10
1.8
Colorado at Baylor
Big 12 vs Big 12
Baylor -11.79 Baylor -10 Baylor -10
1.8
South Carolina at Alabama
SEC vs SEC
Alabama -14.29 Alabama -12.5 Alabama -12.5
1.1
Vanderbilt at Auburn
SEC vs SEC
Auburn -8.43 Auburn -9.5 Vanderbilt +9.5
0.9
Clemson at California
ACC vs ACC
California -0.63 California -1.5 Clemson +1.5
0.7
Texas A&M at LSU
SEC vs SEC
LSU -9.24 LSU -8.5 LSU -8.5
0.1
Ole Miss at Florida
SEC vs SEC
Florida -3.42 Florida -3.5 Ole Miss +3.5

Showing all 15 free games. Gap is our model's spread minus the market's — bigger gaps are bigger disagreements.

43 more games this week

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Game breakdowns

One article per featured game: the line, the disagreement, and the weather.

Illinois at Ohio StateWisconsin at Penn StateIowa at MichiganOklahoma at GeorgiaNotre Dame at PurdueTexas at TennesseeNorthwestern at IndianaOregon at USCMinnesota at WashingtonColorado at BaylorSouth Carolina at AlabamaVanderbilt at AuburnClemson at CaliforniaTexas A&M at LSUOle Miss at Florida

Everything above is the model. The picks are the filter.

The predictions on this page are free. Our pick engine keeps only the games where the model has historically been sharpest — most of the board is passed on. Subscribers get that filtered subset with the size we bet on each one, graded in public.

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What a pick looks like 2025 · Wk 12
Texas at Georgia
Georgia −6
1.75u
suggested
3.50u
full
+3.18u WIN
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